(The following is the closing summary of Sir John Glubb's fine work.)
The experiences of the human race have been recorded, in more or less detail, for some four thousand years. If we attempt to study such a period of time in as many countries as possible, we seem to discover the same patterns constantly repeated under widely differing conditions of climate, culture, and religion.
.The dates given (above) are largely arbitrary. Empires do not usually begin or end on a certain date. There is normally a gradual period of expansion and then a period of decline.
An interesting deduction from the figures seems to be that the duration of empires does not depend on the speed of travel or the nature of weapons. There is a tendency nowadays to say that this is the jet-age, and consequently there is nothing for us to learn from past empires. Such an attitude seems to be erroneous.
The life-expectation of a great nation- it appears, commences with a violent, and usually unforeseen, outburst of energy, and ends in a lowering of moral standards, cynicism, pessimism and frivolity.
The United States arose suddenly as a new nation, and its period of pioneering was spent in the conquest of a vast continent, not an ancient empire. Yet the subsequent life history of the United States has followed the standard pattern which we shall attempt to trace.
(1) We do not learn from history because our studies are brief and prejudiced.
(2) In a surprising manner, 250 years emerges as the average length of national greatness.
(3) This average has not varied for 3,000 years.
(4) The stages of the rise and fall of great nations seem to be:
(2) In a surprising manner, 250 years emerges as the average length of national greatness.
(3) This average has not varied for 3,000 years.
(4) The stages of the rise and fall of great nations seem to be:
- The Age of Pioneers
- The Age of Conquests
- The Age of Commerce
- The Age of Affluence
- The Age of Intellect
- The Age of Decadence
(5) Decadence is marked by:
- Defensiveness
- Pessimism
- Materialism
- Frivolity
- An influx of foreigners
- The Welfare State
- A weakening of religion
History, however, seems to suggest that the age of decline of a great nation is often a period which shows a tendency to philanthropy and to sympathy for other races. As long as it retains its status of leadership, the imperial people are glad to be generous, even if slightly condescending. The rights of citizenship are generously bestowed on every race, even those formerly subject, and the equality of mankind is proclaimed.
The impression that it will always be automatically rich causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its own
benevolence, until such time as the economy collapses, the universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin.
Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease, resulting from too long a period of wealth and power, producing cynicism, decline of religion, pessimism and frivolity. The citizens of such a nation will no longer make an effort to save themselves, because they are not convinced that anything in life is worth saving.
Another remarkable and unexpected symptom of national decline is the intensification of internal political hatreds. Internal rivalries become more acute, as the nation becomes weaker.
It has been shown that, normally, the rise and fall of great nations are due to internal reasons alone. Ten generations of human beings suffice to transform the hardy and enterprising pioneer into the captious citizen of the welfare state.
The ultimate fate of its component parts, however, does not depend on its internal nature, but on the other organizations which appear at the time of its collapse and succeed in devouring its heritage. The new nation is confident, optimistic and perhaps contemptuous of the ‘decadent’ races which it has subjugated.
In spite of the endless variety and the infinite complications of human life, a general pattern does seem to emerge from these considerations. It reveals many successive empires covering some 3,000 years, as having followed similar stages of development and decline.
Perhaps if the pattern of the rise and fall of nations were regularly taught in schools, the general public would come to realize the truth, and would support policies to maintain the spirit of duty and self-sacrifice, and to forestall the
accumulation of excessive wealth by one nation, leading to the demoralization of that nation.
History should be taught as the history of the human race in an endeavor to avoid the mistakes made by our predecessors.
The entire essay may be read at http://people.uncw.edu/
